Gambit · fund desk · as of 2026-09-14
Fund
Meet the team
Numbers-forward hedge-fund desk. Invite-only. Not an offer to the public. Settled live prints only; unmarked NAV is not a return.
Performance (settled, after fees)
Trading P&L (settled, after fees)
-$106.59
since 2026-08-30 · 16 days
Model cost (desk opex)
$6.12
metered from 2026-09-11
Net after model cost
-$112.71
Open positions
0
fills not settled yet, not counted
As of
2026-09-15 00:13 UTC
Computed from the account's own fills and settlements at the exchange: each settled market's result minus the price paid, after fees. Open positions count when they settle. Short samples can mislead; past results are not future results. Invite-only, not an offer to the public.
Hardware
NVIDIA DGX Spark
Desk invent and research compute on GB10.
20× ARM (Cortex-X925 + A725)~119 GB RAMNVIDIA GB10Ubuntu 24.04
Peak 9%
Method
Method
How the desk builds confidence before capital scales — densify, features, search, confirm, then prove.
Certified data densify
Fill thin history before invent runs hard.
Feature engineering
Public as-of features only; no peeking at settle.
Monte Carlo structure search
Many candidate structures, few survivors.
Held-out confirm
Freeze on one slice; confirm on untouched later slices.
Paper → micro prove
Paper first, then small live micros; scale only after settled evidence.
Strategies
PAPER Paper → MICRO Validating → STEP1 Early signal → STEP2 Established → STEP3 Scaled · capital scales with stage
Strategy APaperPAPER
Morning oil sleeve on short-dated prediction-market contracts. Uses public oil reference prices around a fixed US morning window and only reports P&L after official settlement. Sized as a small share of the desk.
settled 43W–1Lnet +18.10 USD
Strategy BPaperPAPER
Companion oil sleeve to Strategy A on a different contract gate so the two do not always move together. Same morning oil theme, same official-settlement-only scoreboard.
settled 20W–2Lnet -19.08 USD
Strategy B.v2PaperPAPER
Parallel micro companion to Strategy B on the same morning oil theme with a tighter disagreement gate. Separate ledger and size from B; public card scores official settles only.
settled 43W–1Lnet +0.31 USD
Strategy CPaperPAPER
Hourly gold contracts: fades rich prices near settlement when the contract looks expensive versus a live gold reference. Micro-sized while the settled sample builds; card returns use official settlement results only.
settled 157W–8Lnet +1.28 USD
Strategy C.v2PaperPAPER
Parallel micro companion to Strategy C on hourly gold: fades rich prices near settlement with a zero buffer and a tighter 45s pre-close book. Separate ledger and $1 clips from C; the public card only scores official settles.
settled 82W–6Lnet -1.43 USD
Strategy D.v2PaperPAPER
Parallel micro companion to Strategy D on hourly gold with a zero buffer and tighter 45s pre-close book. Separate ledger and $1 clips from D; the public card only scores official settles.
settled 62W–4Lnet -0.76 USD
Strategy FPaperPAPER
Hourly silver sleeve using the same last-window idea as the gold pair but on silver markets. Tiny clips; weekends often have no settled prints.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy F.v3PaperPAPER
Parallel micro sleeve beside Strategy F on hourly silver with an improved entry rule and hold-to-settle. Tiny research clips; the public card only scores official settles.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy GPaperPAPER
Hourly silver sleeve beside Strategy F on silver markets. Small research size until enough official settles exist to judge the sleeve.
settled 20W–2Lnet -0.26 USD
Strategy G.v2PaperPAPER
Parallel micro companion to Strategy G on hourly silver with a zero buffer, wider ask band, and min_edge 0.005. Separate ledger and $1 clips from G; the public card only scores official settles.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy G.v3PaperPAPER
Parallel micro sleeve beside Strategy G on hourly silver with an improved entry rule and hold-to-settle. Tiny research clips beside G and G.v2; official settles only.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy IPaperPAPER
Weekly Texas college football bot picks on prediction-market contracts, run on the Saturday-morning cron. Micro-sized research clips; the public card only scores official settles. Separate from Ivan's manual sports sleeve.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy JPaperPAPER
Nightly US retail gas sleeve that fades internal strike-ladder disagreement near the money. Micro research clips; the public card only scores official settles. Separate from the oil, metals, and sports sleeves.
settled 20W–2Lnet -0.89 USD
Strategy J.v2PaperPAPER
Parallel micro sleeve beside Strategy J on national AAA gas with a tighter ladder-disagreement gate. Separate ledger and micro clips from J; the public card only scores official settles.
settled 40W–4Lnet -1.17 USD
Strategy J.v3PaperPAPER
Parallel micro sleeve beside Strategy J on national AAA gas using richer as-of features and hold-to-settle. Separate micro ledger beside J and J.v2; official settles only.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy KPaperPAPER
In-game college football sleeve that fades a team after a sudden scoring jump, using public score timestamps only. Micro clips with a hard daily spend cap; the public card only scores official settles. Separate from Ivan's manual sports bets and the Saturday bot CFB picks.
settled 64W–2Lnet +0.25 USD
Strategy LPaperPAPER
Late-game college football sleeve that buys when a clear lead still prices short of a dollar, capturing leftover edge before settlement. Micro clips with a hard daily spend cap; hold to settle. Not risk-free. Separate from the midgame fade and manual sports sleeves.
settled 33W–0Lnet +0.06 USD
Strategy L.v2PaperPAPER
Parallel micro sleeve beside Strategy L on late CFB leftover pricing with a looser entry window. Separate ledger and micro clips from L; the public card only scores official settles.
settled 55W–0Lnet +0.34 USD
Strategy L.v3PaperPAPER
Parallel micro sleeve beside Strategy L on late college football leftover pricing. Small clips with a hard daily spend cap; hold to settle. Official settlement results only. Not risk-free.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy MPaperPAPER
Pregame college football sleeve that fades a team after a prior loss, only inside a max 3-hour window before tipoff. Micro clips with a hard daily spend cap; the public card only scores official settles. Separate from late leftover and midgame sleeves.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy NPaperPAPER
In-game college football sleeve that fades a mid spike after a brief book pause. Micro clips with a hard daily spend cap; the public card only scores official settles. Separate from K/L/M sports sleeves.
settled 63W–3Lnet +0.08 USD
Strategy OPaperPAPER
In-game college football sleeve that follows a rebound after an extreme mid in a close game. Micro clips with a hard daily spend cap; the public card only scores official settles. Separate from K/L/M/N sports sleeves.
settled 43W–1Lnet +0.55 USD
Strategy QPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Austin. Compares published METAR forecasts to the traded book and keeps a small paper stake.
settled 370W–37Lnet -6.03 USD
Strategy Q.v3PaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Austin. Parallel micro beside Strategy Q; same METAR-vs-book theme.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy TPaperPAPER
Tech-heavy US session levels. Same cash-session check as the broader book; paper micro only.
settled 140W–14Lnet -0.19 USD
Strategy T.v3PaperPAPER
Tech-heavy US session levels. Parallel micro beside Strategy T; same cash-session check as the broader book.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy SPaperPAPER
US large-cap session levels. Watches how traded odds line up with the cash session; paper micro only.
settled 90W–9Lnet -8.64 USD
Strategy RPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in New York. Uses METAR forecasts versus the traded book; small paper stake only.
settled 110W–11Lnet -6.43 USD
Strategy R.v3PaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in New York. Parallel micro beside Strategy R; same METAR-vs-book theme.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy UPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Los Angeles. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper micro only.
settled 100W–10Lnet -9.58 USD
Strategy U.v3PaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Los Angeles. Parallel micro beside Strategy U; same METAR-vs-book theme.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy VPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Philadelphia. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper micro only.
settled 330W–33Lnet -8.28 USD
Strategy V.v3PaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Philadelphia. Parallel micro beside Strategy V; same METAR-vs-book theme.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy WPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Miami. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper micro only.
settled 220W–22Lnet -7.38 USD
Strategy W.v3PaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Miami. Parallel micro beside Strategy W; same METAR-vs-book theme.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy XPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Chicago. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper micro only.
settled 130W–13Lnet -9.58 USD
Strategy X.v3PaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Chicago. Parallel micro beside Strategy X; same METAR-vs-book theme.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy YPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Denver. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper micro only.
settled 192W–17Lnet -2.24 USD
Strategy Y.v3PaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Denver. Parallel micro beside Strategy Y; same METAR-vs-book theme.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy ZPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Dallas. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper until live path arms.
settled 261W–25Lnet -7.07 USD
Strategy AAPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Minneapolis. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper until live path arms.
settled 202W–18Lnet -3.83 USD
Strategy BBPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Phoenix. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper until live path arms.
settled 250W–25Lnet -8.59 USD
Strategy CCPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Seattle. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; paper until live path arms.
settled 170W–17Lnet -8.47 USD
Strategy DDPaperPAPER
Daily high temperature in Houston. METAR forecasts versus the temperature book; live micro beside the city-high book.
settled 300W–30Lnet -10.02 USD
Strategy EEPaperPAPER
Hourly WTI path sleeve from locked both-confirm FREEZE. Paper face only until an explicit later live order.
settled 00W–0L—
Archive3Not currently live
Strategy DOff
Hourly metals session beside Strategy C versus the same live metals reference. Same micro size and official-settlement reporting rules.
settled 40W–4Lnet -7.22 USD
Strategy HOff
Sports-book settled prints (mostly college football) in the fund ledger for transparent settled P&L. Separate from the automated Saturday research book.
settled 00W–0L—
Strategy POff
In-game college football sleeve that trades the gap between an implied probability and the live mid. Micro clips with a hard daily spend cap; the public card only scores official settles. Separate from K/L/M/N/O sports sleeves.
settled 61W–5Lnet -2.84 USD
Research desk
Research cores and queue — research only, not live book.
Cores
StaleResearchStale
StaleGuardStale
StaleFillStale
Phase · InventFamily · research book
Research capacity
Next up
- Invent Monte Carlo invent — next letter hunt
- Invent Letter hunt on open sleeves
- Invent Paper exit and feature research
History
| Time (CT) | Status | What | Theme |
|---|
| Fri 11, 3:58 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Fri 11, 3:28 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Fri 11, 2:57 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Fri 11, 2:27 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Fri 11, 1:57 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Fri 11, 1:27 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Fri 11, 0:56 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Fri 11, 0:26 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Thu 10, 23:56 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Thu 10, 23:25 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Thu 10, 22:55 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
| Thu 10, 22:25 CT | Densifying | Densifying research data. | research data |
Updated 2026-09-14T19:18:17.57
How the fund works
Outside pooled capital is closed until counsel. Access is invite- and allowlist-only. This is not an offer to the public. Not registered with the SEC, CFTC, or NFA. Gambit is not your adviser or fiduciary. You can lose all capital. Past settled results are not future results. Principal at risk — no FDIC or SIPC.
Units
- When a unique Lightning fund invoice pays, units mint immediately at that day’s NAV per unit on the LP net (gross − load − network fees). Founding load is 0%. Genesis NAV per unit was 1.0.
- You hold an unsecured ledger claim on the operator’s KYC venue account — not a named venue subaccount. You see units, NAV, deposits, withdrawals, and fees — not trades, tickers, sides, or fills.
Mark / NAV
- Public mark = venue cash + official settled results + unswept paid Lightning. Unsettled marks are not cash. NAV already includes unswept paid Lightning until the venue sweep.
- Public tape: /fund/nav. Weekday 17:00 CT snapshot.
When capital hits the book
- Units credit right away on Lightning settle. On-chain into the venue is a weekly Monday 15:00 CT batch of paid-but-unswept LP nets (empty or fee-eaten batches are skipped; no sweep Tuesday–Sunday).
- Until that sweep, capital sits in Lightning but already counts in NAV as unswept.
Withdrawals
- Request by units or USD only (
POST /lp/withdraw — no bolt11). Payout goes to a saved LNURL on the hosted payout page; an address change locks for 1 day. Default is confirm-each (human tap); Autopilot is a human opt-in.
- After confirm, payout attempts the next weekday 9:00 CT that is at least one 10:00 CT settle later (~1 trading day). Needs free cash after settle.
- 1% unload to GP; Lightning routing from the remaining 99%. Lightning-only — no on-chain LP payouts. No emergency dump of live contracts. No multi-month lockup beyond that clock and the address lockup.
- Holdbacks = 1% unload + network fees + the settle/clock wait.
Fees (founding)
- 0% load · 1% unload · 1% management annualized (accrued and crystallized on the weekday NAV snapshot) · 20% incentive above high-water mark (after management).
- Unload (1%) is taken on withdraw. Network fees come from the LP pile, not GP.
Request access
Request received. Status pending. No invite yet.
We will follow up if approved. Automated applicants welcome.
NAV · Prospectus · Fund skill